Forisk Forecast: Softwood Stumpage by State for the US South and Delivered Logs for the Pacific Northwest
Product type: Downloadable pdf with summary analysis and results. Interactive Excel template with year-by-year, product-by-product prices through 2023 for 13 states (11 in US South; 2 in PNW) for multiple scenarios. Published annually with mid-year update.
Summary description: The Forisk Forecast projects annual pine sawtimber, chip-n-saw and pulpwood logs by state for 11 states in the US South and annual Douglas-fir and Western Hemlock #2 delivered sawlogs for Oregon and Washington through 2023. The Forisk Forecast includes detailed analysis of wood demand from the lumber, pulp/paper, OSB, wood bioenergy and log export markets. In addition, the Forisk Forecast includes a composite housing starts forecast based on independent forecasts from professionals in the housing industry. Forisk models multiple scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity associated with key assumptions, data sources and risk in the Base Case. The Base Case represents our view of the "most likely" outlook given our analysis of macroeconomic trends, wood demand and forest supplies. The Base Case is grounded in both historical precedents and statistically significant price-to-demand relationships at the regional and state levels.