The ForiskFORECAST: Pine sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage (US South); Softwood sawtimber delivered (US PNW) predicts annual softwood (pine, Douglas-fir and hemlock) sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices across the US South and Pacific Northwest and by state through 2021, and forecasts the production of lumber, paper and paperboard, as well as the demand for wood from emerging bioenergy markets. In addition to regional US South and Pacific Northwest forecasts, this package includes individual state forecasts for 13 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. All forecasts span 10 years, from 2012 to 2021, and predict average annual prices. The package includes a printable pdf file with the baseline sawtimber and pulpwood forecasts, baseline state forecasts, and two alternative scenarios for the regions and all states. In addition, the package includes an interactive Excel template for softwood sawtimber by state for application of forecasted annual price changes against alternate starting prices in 2012.
 
The ForiskFORECAST: Pine Sawtimber (PST) is a set of econometric models that estimates the likely response of US softwood lumber consumption and pine sawtimber stumpage prices in the US South to changing macroeconomic factors and localized wood demand. The ForiskFORECAST uses macroeconomic factors from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) macro forecast as a part of its Annual Energy Outlook, and state-specific wood demand from the Wood Demand Research Program at the Center for Forest Business at the University of Georgia. Housing estimates rely on data from the EIA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Mesirow Financial, and NAV.

Three interdependent economic models comprise the ForiskFORECAST: Pine Sawtimber:

• Model 1: The macroeconomic model was updated for this issue to include the last two years of economic activity. The current US softwood lumber consumption (BBft) is forecasted from changing macro variables that include: real GDP (in $2000), housing status, US population and the vacancy percent for residential rental properties. The Producer Price Index (PPI-All) has been removed from the macroeconomic model for softwood lumber consumption as it became statistically insignificant.
• Model 2: South-wide pine sawtimber (PST) stumpage prices ($/ton) are forecasted from the lagged historical PST stumpage price (Timber Mart-South) and US softwood lumber consumption.
• Model 3: PST stumpage prices are scaled down to individual states in the US South. State scaling includes South-wide PST stumpage prices and three elasticities. Elasticity #1 quantifies the relationship between South-wide stumpage prices and each state's PST stumpage price. Elasticity #2 quantifies the relationship between South-wide PST demand and each state's PST demand (the Wood Demand Research Program). Elasticity #3 quantifies the relationship between each state's PST demand and each state's stumpage price.

The High Growth Scenario is characterized by 10% higher annual forecasted real GDP and housing starts, and continued development of pine sawtimber export markets from the US South. The Low Growth Scenario is characterized by 10% lower annual forecasted real GDP and housing starts. A multiplier of 0.9 for each variable generates this scenario.

The ForiskFORECAST: Pine Pulpwood (PPW) is a set of economic models that estimates the likely response of pine pulpwood stumpage prices in the US South to changing demand factors from three pulpwood end-uses. The ForiskFORECAST uses macroeconomic factors from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) macro forecast as a part of its Annual Energy Outlook and state-specific wood demand from the Wood Demand Research Program at the Center for Forest Business at the University of Georgia. Housing estimates rely on data from the EIA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Mesirow Financial, and NAV.

Three interdependent economic models forecast the end-use demand for pulpwood:

• Model 1: US paper and paperboard production (tons) is forecasted from changing macro variables that include: real GDP (in $2000), housing starts, US population growth, unemployment (percent), inflation (percent).
• Recovery and re-use rates further applied to model US paper and paperboard production from virgin fiber.
• Southern demand for pulpwood is estimated to meet the production requirements of paper and paperboard from vergin fiber.
• Model 2: OSB demand for pulpwood is assumed to be influenced by the recovery of housing starts, and follow the estimated trend of US softwood lumber consumption.
• Model 3: Bioenergy demabd is the potential demand for pulpwood-sized roundwood from announced and operating projects that pass Forisk viability screening in the US South from Forisk's January 2012 Wood Bioenergy US.

Scenario One is characterized by 10% higher annual forecasted real GDP, housing starts and inflation. A multiplier of 1.1 for each variable generates this scenario. Scenario Two is characterized by 10% lower annual forecasted real GDP, housing starts and inflation. A multiplier of 0.9 for each variable generates this scenario.

The ForiskFORECAST: Softwood Sawtimber Delivered Forecast - PNW is a set of econometric models that estimates the likely response of the US softwood lumber consumption by region and softwood delivered (pond) prices in the US West to changing macroeconomic factors. The forecast uses macroeconomic factors from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) macro forecast as a part of its annual energy outlook. Housing estimates rely on data from the EIA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Mesirow Financial, and NAV.

Three interdependent economic models comprise the ForistFORECAST- Softwood Sawtimber (PNW):

• Model 1: US softwood lumber consumption (BBft) is forecasted from changing macro variables that include: real GDP (in $2000), housing starts, US population and vacancy precent for rental properties.
• Model 2: Softwood lumber production by region (West, South, and North) is forecasted using the softwood consumption outlook from Model 1 and assumptions about imports/exports and trends of historical lumber production by region.
• Model 3: Softwood delivered (pond) prices for Douglas-fir (DF) and Hemlock were updated for this issue to include the latest local market information. The delivered price model uses historical time series from two sources: the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) and Wood Resources International LLC (WRI). The outlook for each price series is based on a quarterly econometric model with four primary inputs: lagged own delivered price, Western lumber production, PPI index for fuel and softwood log exports to non-Canadian consumers. The increased export volumes of logs to primarily China in the past 12 months have made softwood log exports variable statistically significant and warranted its inclusion in the price model.

The ForiskFORECAST - Softwood Sawtimber model has four primary outputs related to lumber production: US softwood lumber consumption (BBft) and softwood lumber production by each of the three lumber producing regions in the US. There are also four outputs relating to delivered (pond) prices: two delivered price forecasts based on time series from the Oregon Department of Forestry (for Douglas-fir and White Hemlock species) and two delivered price forecasts based on time series from Wood Resournces International LLC (for Douglas-fir and Hemlock-Fir species mix).
 
 
ForiskFORECAST details:
Product Type:                Downloadable pdf
Contents:                      1. Annual Softwood Pulpwood and Sawtimber
                                        prices for US South and Pacific Northwest, 2012-2021
                                    2. Annual Softwood Pulpwood and Sawtimber
                                        prices for 13 states, 2012-2021
                                    3. Interactive Excel template for softwood changes by state 
                                        and by year to allow the application of different starting 
                                        price assumptions.
Publication Schedule:    Published annually, updated mid-year.  Purchase of a forecast includes the mid-year update.
 
When you purchase the ForiskFORECAST, the pdf file is available for immediate download and the Excel model will be emailed to you within 48 hours. If you do not receive the file or need the file sooner, please email bmendell@forisk.com or ahlang@forisk.com.