ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: Arkansas is a set of econometric models that estimate the likely response of US softwood lumber consumption and pine sawtimber stumpage prices in Arkansas to changing macroeconomic factors and wood demand. The forecast spans 11 years, 2010-2020, and is published annually. ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: Arkansas includes Forisk’s forecasted US softwood lumber consumption. It also contains macroeconomic factor forecasts, including GDP and housing starts.

Metholodogy:
ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: Arkansas includes Forisk’s forecasted US softwood lumber consumption. It also contains macroeconomic factor forecasts for the US, including GDP, housing starts, population, and producer’s price index (PPI).

ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: Arkansas relies on three price-demand relationships called elasticities. Elasticity #1 quantifies the relationship between South-wide stumpage prices and each state's PST stumpage price. Elasticity #2 quantifies the relationship between South-wide PST demand and each state's PST demand (Forisk's Wood Demand Report). Elasticity #3 quantifies the relationship between each state's PST demand and each state's PST stumpage price.

Forecast Inputs:
Four variables are used in the ForiskFORECAST. The default high and low scenarios apply annual multipliers to GDP and housing starts inputs of 1.1 and 0.9 for scenarios, respectively.

Forecast Outputs:
The ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber model has two primary outputs: US softwood lumber consumption (BBft) and pine sawtimber stumpage prices at the state level ($/ton).

Click here to download an overview of ForiskFORECAST.

ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: Arkansas details:
Product type:             Downloadable pdf
Contents:                  Annual PST stumpage prices in Arkansas, 2010-2020
Publication Schedule: Published annually, updated mid-year. Purchase of a forecast includes the mid-year update.

For more information please email bmendell@forisk.com