ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: South-wide is a set of econometric models that estimate the likely response of US softwood lumber consumption and pine sawtimber stumpage prices in the US South to changing macroeconomic factors. The forecast spans 11 years, 2010-2020, and is published annually. ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: South-wide includes Forisk’s forecasted US softwood lumber consumption. It also contains macroeconomic factor forecasts, including GDP and housing starts.

Metholodogy:
ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber: South-wide includes Forisk’s forecasted US softwood lumber consumption. It also contains macroeconomic factor forecasts, including GDP, housing starts, population, and producer’s price index (PPI).

Two interdependent econometric models comprise the ForiskFORECAST – Pine Sawtimber: South-wide:
Model 1. US softwood lumber consumption is forecasted from changing macro variables that include: real GDP, housing starts, US population growth and the Producer's Price Index (PPI).
Model 2. South-wide pine sawtimber (PST) stumpage prices ($/ton) are forecasted from the historical PST stumpage price (Timber Mart-South) and softwood lumber consumption.

Forecast Inputs:
Four variables are used in the ForiskFORECAST. The default High and Low scenarios apply annual multipliers to GDP and housing starts inputs of 1.1 and 0.9 for scenarios, respectively.

Forecast Outputs:
ForiskFORECAST has two primary outputs - US Softwood Lumber Consumption (in BBft) and Southwide Pine Sawtimber Stumpage price ($/ton).

Click here to download an overview of ForiskFORECAST.

ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber South-wide details:
Product type:             Downloadable pdf
Contents:                  Annual PST stumpage prices US South, 2010-2020
Publication Schedule: Published annually, updated mid-year. Purchase of a forecast includes the mid-year update.

For more information please email bmendell@forisk.com