ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber estimates the likely response of pine sawtimber stumpage prices in the US South to changing macroeconomic factors. This forecast includes an interactive Excel model that allows users to modify key inputs based on their assumptions. In addition to a regional US South forecast, this package includes individual state forecasts for 11 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. All forecasts span 11 years, from 2010 to 2020, and predict average annual prices. Along with the Excel model, the package includes a printable pdf file with the baseline south-wide pine sawtimber forecast, baseline state forecasts, and high/low scenarios for the region and all states.

Metholodogy:
ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber for the US South includes Forisk’s forecasted US softwood lumber consumption. It also contains macroeconomic factor forecasts, including GDP, housing starts, population, and the Producer’s Price Index (PPI). Users can change the estimates of macroeconomic factors to test the sensitivity of the responses of stumpage prices in the future. This ability to change model inputs is unique, and useful to answer questions related to impacts of varying macroeconomic factors on stumpage prices in the future.

Three interdependent econometric models comprise the ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber:
Model 1: US softwood lumber consumption is forecasted from changing macro variables that include: real GDP, housing starts, US population growth and the Producer's Price Index (PPI).
Model 2: South-wide pine sawtimber (PST) stumpage prices ($/ton) are forecasted from the historical PST stumpage price (Timber Mart-South) and softwood lumber consumption.
Model 3: South-wide pine sawtimber (PST) stumpage prices are scaled down to individual states in the US South. State scaling includes South-wide PST stumpage prices and three elasticities. Elasticity #1 quantifies the relationship between South-wide stumpage prices and each state's PST stumpage price. Elasticity #2 quantifies the relationship between South-wide PST demand and each state's PST demand (Forisk's Wood Demand Report). Elasticity #3 quantifies the relationship between each state's PST demand and each state's PST stumpage price.

Forecast Inputs:
The ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber uses four forecasted variables. Scenarios show default high and low stumpage price scenarios that apply annual multipliers to GDP and housing starts inputs of 1.1 and 0.9 for scenarios, to reflect 10% increases and 10% decreases, respectively, in the annual forecast of these macro variables.

Forecast Outputs:
The ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber model has three primary outputs: US softwood lumber consumption (BBFt), South-wide pine sawtimber stumpage prices ($/ton) and pine sawtimber stumpage prices at the state level ($/ton).

Click here to download an overview of ForiskFORECAST.

ForiskFORECAST - Pine Sawtimber Interactive South-wide Model Plus State details:
Product type:             Interactive Excel model and pdf
Contents:                  Annual PST stumpage prices US South, 2010-2020
                                Annual PST stumpage prices for 11 southern states, 2010-2020
Publication Schedule: Published annually, updated mid-year. Purchase of a forecast includes the mid-year update.

For more information please email bmendell@forisk.com